Article, Washington D.C., April 21, 2008
Indiana: The Unlikely Battleground
Erin Wroblewski,
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Washington, D.C.
The Quiet Democrats
The last time Indiana went to the Democrats in a Presidential election was 1964. George W. Bush easily claimed the state in 2004, winning 88 of 92 counties. Unlike its left-leaning neighbors Illinois and Michigan or the swing-state of Ohio next door, Indiana has been counted among the "red states" for the last two generations. In 2008, however, Indiana has become an unlikely battleground.
Its Presidential record is consistently conservative, but Indiana is not a Republican monolith. Since winning statehood in 1816, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats have served as Governor. The General Assembly is currently split, with a Republican majority in the State Senate and Democrats in control of the State House of Representatives. Former Governor Evan Bayh, a Democrat, serves alongside Republican Richard Lugar in the United States Senate, and five Democrats and four Republicans serve in the House.
Democrats matter here, however, the Presidential election results show that Midwestern Democrats were never presented with a candidate that mobilized Democratic voters. John Kerry's nomination, for example, was locked up far before the Indiana primary. This year, however, Indiana will finally have a say in determining the nominee and the Presidential election it will not be a GOP "gimme".
Common Concerns
The issue debates in Indiana are not unique. Behind talk of economic gloom and war weariness are real Hoosier stories (people from Indiana are called Hoosiers). The consequences of the war in Iraq for the international image of the US worry many, but for others the worry is personal. Indiana has lost 102 service members in Iraq and Afghanistan and more than 12,000 have served there since September 11th, 2001.
Employment and economics debates resonate among voters, too. Manufacturing jobs have fled the state and retail sales and employment have slowed. Indiana based American Trans Air, the 10th largest passenger airline in the US, filed for bankruptcy this April, meaning the virtual evaporation of over two thousand jobs. An Indiana Child Protective Services employee indicated that layoffs have affected family dynamics and contributed to domestic violence. Bush's approval ratings have sagged here and the administration's policies no longer enjoy broad support. In search of change, many Hoosiers have looked toward Democrats.
We Finally Matter
While Iowa and New Hampshire's early primaries and caucuses garner more attention from candidates than their size would indicate, Indiana was always last. The May primary has been irrelevant in the past, with nominations decided before Hooisers could vote. For this reason, many Hoosiers stayed away from the polls and candidates campaigned elsewhere. The undecided 2008 Democratic primary, however, has evoked more interest from voters and candidates alike. One voter remarked, "It seems like Bill Clinton is here every week".
While pressure is mounting for one candidate to drop out or the party to intervene and decide the nomination, Indiana voters disagree. The fact that the race is still tight in May is sending more Indiana Democrats to register for the first time, which could have an impact in November.
The Last Word
Recent polling suggests a statistical tie between Senators Clinton and Obama in Indiana. Many Hoosiers predict a larger turnout among Democratic voters than Republicans and especially among younger voters. On May 6th, as one of the last seven states to vote, Hoosiers will finally have their say.